Skymet, India’s private sector weather forecasting and agriculture risk solutions company has released its monsoon forecast for 2016. Skymet expects the coming monsoon would be ‘above normal.’ It has forecast the monsoon at 105 per cent with an error margin of +/-4% of the long period average (LPA) of 887 mm for the four-month period from June to September.
In terms of geographical risk, Skymet expects that Tamil Nadu, North East India and South Interior Karnataka will be at moderate risk through the season. A fairly good amount of rainfall is expected along the West coast and Central India. Latter half of the monsoon will see better rainfall than the first half.
According to Jatin Singh, CEO, Skymet, “The El Niño is likely to continue till the onset of monsoon and taper down thereafter. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the monsoon performance”. The monsoon is expected to be on time. Pre-monsoon rain will be more intense during May. Formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal in the last few days of May is likely to usher in monsoon over Kerala and parts of North East India simultaneously.
There is no clear signal about the emergence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) so far during the monsoon. IOD may remain neutral during the Monsoon.
According to Skymet forecast, there are chances of excess by 20 percent — seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 percent of LPA –, 35 percent chance of above normal — seasonal rainfall that is between 105 percent to 110 percent of LPA — 30 percent chance of normal — seasonal rainfall that is between 96 percent to 104 percent of LPA –, 10 percent chance of below normal — seasonal rainfall that is between 90 percent to 95 percent of LPA –, 5 percent chance of drought — seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA.