After a long dry spell in many parts of the country in July, revising its earlier prediction, private weather agency Skymet has lowered its monsoon forecast from 102 percent to 98 percent. The agency said that the country will receive normal monsoon during the year.
It has also revised its prediction for July to 84 percent as against the earlier forecast of 104 percent. Anything less than 90 percent of the Long-Period Average (LPA) is termed ‘deficient’ rainfall while 90-96 percent of LPA is considered ‘below normal’. Again, rainfall at 96-104 percent of the LPA is ‘normal’ with 104 to 110 percent taken to be above normal. Anything over that is ‘excess’.
Taking cognizance of July rain, and the updated August and September forecast, Skymet has revised the monsoon forecast to 98 percent (normal) of the LPA from 102 percent issued in April (error margin of plus/ minus 4 percent). After an above normal June (plus 16 percent), July has ended with (minus 15 percent). This is near normal, but less than our initial forecast (plus 4 percent).
According to the revised Skymet forecast, there is 63 percent chance of normal, 35 percent chance of below normal and 2 percent chance of drought. Cumulative rainfall for August and September is forecast at 92 percent and 112 percent (error margin of plus/ minus 9 percent) of their monthly LPAs, respectively. Earlier, Skymet had predicted above normal rainfall (104 percent) for July and normal rainfall in August (99 percent) and September (96 percent).
The India Meteorological Department has predicted 88 percent rainfall, which would mean a ‘deficient’ monsoon. Its July and August forecast stands at minus 8 (92 percent of the LPA) and minus 10 percent (90 percent of the LPA), respectively. IMD is yet to calculate the overall figure for July, but until early this week, it stood at around minus 17 percent.