In its second stage forecast of Southwest monsoon, Indian Meteorological Department(IMD) has forecast today that the monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country is likely to be 98 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error of ±4 per cent.
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2017 southwest monsoon season – June to September – is most likely to be normal and would be 96 per cent to 104 per cent of LPA. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 100 per cent of LPA over Central India, 99 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96 per cent of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ±8 per cent.
The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 96 per cent of its LPA during July and 99 per cent of LPA during August both with a model error of ±9 per cent.
IMD had issued the first stage operational long range forecasts for the southwest monsoon season – June to September – 2017 rainfall over the country as a whole on April 18, 2017. In addition to the update of its April assessment, forecasts for the monthly rainfall for July and August 2017 over the country as a whole, and seasonal rainfall forecast for the 4 broad geographical regions of India are released in New Delhi today.
Dynamical forecast update generated in real time based on the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) is also released today. The latest version of the MMCFS, currently operated horizontal resolution of 38km (T382)) is now implemented for operational use for rigorous performance evaluation on an experimental model in parallel with the SEFS at the office of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune upon its transfer from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.
Since mid-March 2017, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the tropical Pacific. The atmospheric conditions over the Pacific also reflect neutral ENSO conditions. The latest forecast from MMCFS indicates neutral ENSO conditions are likely till end of this year. This is in line with the forecasts from some of the global climate centres. However, outlook from other global climate centres also indicates about 60 per cent probability of development of weak El Niño conditions during the second half of the year, 2017.