South west monsoon seasonal rainfall, June to September, across India is likely to be normal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its forecast. Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the forecast period is likely to be 96 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 percent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Weak El Niño conditions are likely to prevail over the Pacific Ocean during the monsoon season with reduced intensity in the later part of the season.
The sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific (El Niño/La Niña) and Indian Oceans (Indian Ocean Dipole-IOD) which are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon are being continuously monitored. Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif season.
IMD will issue the second stage Monsoon-2019 forecast during the first week of June, 2019.
IMD issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon season – June to September – rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages. The first stage