Skymet Weather Services – India’s largest private weather monitoring and agri-risk solutions company has released the second volume of the ‘Kharif Report’ for the year 2019 .The report talks about the year’s Monsoon spread and its impact on the production of Kharif crops. It has also done an analysis of impact of actual rainfall recorded between June 1 to August 14 and the forecast for the critical period of the crops (that is, August and September), anticipating the changes that could possibly occur on the productivity and production side.
According to the report, after a delayed onset and scanty June, the month of July started well in terms of rainfall across the country. The Southwest Monsoon was very active in Central, East and Northeast India during the first 10 days of the month. And every day there was a drop of about 2-3 per cent in the countrywide rainfall deficiency.
The Skymet data says, good rains in late July and early August kicked start the sowing operations of Kharif crops across the country and helped cover the lag that insufficient rains had created in the first half of the Monsoon season. Most of the Kharif crops such as soybean, paddy (rice) and pulses were sown late even in the key producing states. Sowing of certain crops is still going on in a few states after good rainfall was recorded in the first fortnight of August. Missed sowing window leads to potential losses in yields specially in the case of soybean and pulses whose sowing window normally closes by mid – July.
In this report, Skymet deeply analysed the impact of actual rainfall recorded between June 1 to August 15 and delineated the forecast for the critical period of the crops that is the second fortnight of August and September. It has also anticipated the changes that could possibly occur on the productivity and production side.
Through the analysis, Skymet has arrived at the outcome which indicates that cotton production in the country will increase by 14 per cent to 34.21 million bales in 2019-20 from 30.08 million bales previous year due to improved yields.
Soybean production in the upcoming Kharif season is likely to fall by around 12.5 per cent to 11.99 million tonnes, compared to 13.69 million tonnes previous season. Excess rains in few districts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra is expected to impact the yields adversely.
Paddy production is also likely to go down in the upcoming Kharif season to 88.66 million tonnes. It might register a fall of 13 per cent compared to the 101.96 million tonnes produced a year ago. The monsoon vagaries are expected to affect the yield primarily in the rainfed areas.
Kharif pulses production is also likely to go down by 0.5 per cent to 8.53 million tonnes compared to 8.59 million tonnes previous season. Late sowing of pulses and slight reduction in area is expected to bring down the pulses production in the country.
According Shymet rainfall data, from June 1 to August 15, there was 582 mm of rain in the country against the normal of 578 mm, which means that the cumulative rainfall in the country stands at a surplus of 1 per cent, a sharp contrast to the 33 per cent deficiency that was threatening the country till June 30. This is clearly an outcome of some good rains in July and in the first fortnight of August.
Excess rains in July also caused flood-like situations in many pockets of the country. The worst hit states were Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In Assam, approximately 7,82,051 hectares of agricultural land area seemed to be under high soil moisture regime. In Bihar, approximately 12,91,680 hectares area of agricultural land was affected, in Uttar Pradesh, 84,161 hectares of agriculture land and in Punjab, 15,438 hectares of agriculture land area was affected, the weather agency said.
In August, another week of active Monsoon conditions, were observed in the country, during which good rainfall was experienced over most regions like Central, East and North India. Central India was the chief beneficiary during this period, receiving the maximum amount of rainfall. Several places like Vadodara, Surat, Pune, Nashik and Mumbai observed over 100 mm of rain on a few occasions. Heavy rains were also recorded in Katara, Una and Kapurthala in North India. Heavy rains caused massive flooding in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The situation was particularly serious in parts of Maharashtra like Sangli, Nagpur, Kolhapur, Akola and Mahabaleshwar.