Government is keeping an eye on the weather forecast by a private agency, Skymet which has predicted seasonal rainfall of 102 percent of Long Period Average (LPA) for the 2015 southwest monsoon, whereas Earth System Science Organisation–India Meteorological Department (ESSO-IMD) has predicted monsoon 2015 seasonal rainfall of 88 percent of LPA with 4 percent model error. The cumulative rainfall received so far, from 1st June to 7th August 2015, is 93 percent of LPA. As about two more months are left for the monsoon season, it will be early to say which forecast is accurate, a government release says.
However, ESSO-IMD stands by its seasonal Long Range Forecast (LRF) of monsoon 2015 issued in June 2015, the release says.
The private forecaster, Skymet has predicted its monsoon forecast between 98 percent to 102 percent which is called a normal monsoon.
The cumulative rainfall situation for the period 1st June to 7th August, 2015 is 93 percent. The actual rainfall in July was 84 percent of LPA which is well within the forecast range issued by ESSO-IMD model and far off the target of the forecast issued by private agency. The rainfall during 2nd half for the country as a whole is likely to be 84 percent of LPA with a model error of 8 percent. The rainfall during August is likely to be 90 percent with a model error of 9 percent of LPA as was forecast in June.
Government is closely and continuously monitoring the rainfall situation over the country. ESSO-IMD is issuing weather forecast with a lead period of 5 to 20 days. Gramin Krishi Seva Scheme (GKMS) is rendered on twice -weekly basis in collaboration with State Agricultural Universities (SAUs), institutions of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) etc. Further, crop specific advisories, generated in partnership with SAUs and ICAR, to help the farmers are issued and widely disseminated for planning possible contingency actions.