FMCG sector to double by 2020 to reach US 104 bn Study

A study has projected more than doubling of India's FMCG market to US$104 billion by 2020 from the present level of US$49 billion. Increasing rural demand will play major role.
FMCG sector to double by 2020 to reach US 104 bn Study

An ASSOCHAM-TechSci Research report has projected more than doubling of India’s market for the fast moving consumer goods (GMCG) to US$104 billion by 2020 from the present level of US$49 billion, growing at an impressive compounded annual growth rate of 20.6 percent.

The optimism is based on steady economic growth, increasing share of organised retail, improving awareness about health and ethnic products while a favourable demographic dividend is already given. “It is certainly good news for giving a much-needed consumption boost to the economy," DS Rawat, ASSOCHAM Secretary General said.

Currently, India accounts for a share of just 0.68 percent of the Global FMCG market, this share is expected to increase significantly over the next 5 years mainly due to the macroeconomic factors such as improving demographics, rising disposable income, expansion of organised retail in tier II & III cities, changing consumer preferences etc, the study, ‘Indian FMCG Market 2020’ said.

Globally, the FMCG sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.4 percent, which when compared to India is a lot slower. To tap the growing Indian market, many foreign FMCG multinationals have established themselves in India.

Globally, the FMCG companies have now shifted their focus on E-commerce due to the increasing mobile internet penetration. The share of online sales of FMCG products accounted for around 5 percent in 2015, which is relatively higher than India where online FMCG sales accounted for a share of just 1-2 percent of the overall FMCG market in 2015.

The global economic growth has been decelerating as several large economies face decreasing economic growth, primarily China and the Eurozone, as well as a few key emerging markets like Brazil and Russia. This offers an advantage to India which has a significantly better economic condition.

Indian FMCG sector had a market size of US$43 billion in 2015. Well-established distribution networks, as well as intense competition between the organised and unorganised segments are the characteristics of this sector. The FMCG market in India is anticipated to grow at a significantly high CAGR during the forecast period and is expected to cross US$100 billion mark by 2020. FMCG in India has a strong distribution presence across the entire value chain.

The FMCG sector is an important contributor to India’s GDP growth. The sector includes food and dairy products, packaged food products, household products, drinks and others.

FMCG is the fourth largest sector in Indian economy and provides employment to around 3 million people, accounting for approximately 5 percent of the total factory employment in India. The sector is characterised by strong presence of leading multinational companies, competition between organised and unorganised players, well established distribution network, and low operational cost.

The growth in the country’s FMCG sector is being fuelled by improving scenario in both demand as well as supply side. The major demand side drivers include growing affluence and appetite for consumption of the Indian consumer, growing youth population, rise in per capita expenditure, and increasing brand consciousness.

On the other hand, easier import of materials and technology, reduced barriers to entry of foreign players, and new product development, rapid real estate infrastructure development and improvement in supply chain efficiency are the major supply side drivers for the sector.

The growth of the FMCG sector, which primarily includes food and beverages, personal care and household care has been driven in both the rural and urban segments. Rural consumption growth has outpaced urban consumption with the increase in percentage in monthly per capita expenditure in rural markets surpassing its urban counterparts over the past five years. Several government measures such as GST, Food Security Act and FDI in retail sector are expected to have a significant positive impact on the country’s FMCG sector in the coming years. 

The Changing Face of Rural India