The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has raised its world cereal production forecast for 2016 to 2,543 million tonnes, just 0.7 per cent below the record high of 2014.
The new production figure in today’s updated Cereal Supply and Demand Brief is 17 million tonnes higher than reported in May, reflecting upward revisions for wheat and maize in major producing countries.
World cereal utilisation, meanwhile, is expected to be 2,546 million tonnes for the marketing year, a slight markdown from the May projection.
At the same time, the forecast for global cereal stocks was raised to 642 million tonnes – less than two million tonnes below their all-time high, driven by a historical revision to China’s wheat inventory.
Global trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 1.9 per cent from the previous year to 369 million tonnes. The contraction "is likely to intensify competition for market share among major exporters, a prospect that could keep international prices in check," FAO said.