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The Earth System Science Organization (ESSO), released the 1st stage long range forecast of Southwest Monsoon, expected to be below normal this year.
Briefing journalists in New Delhi, Minister of Science & Technology and Earth Sciences Dr. Harsh Vardhan said that the Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 93 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a possible error of plus or minus five percent. If the range in terms of percentage of the Long Period Average is between 90 and 96, it is considered as ‘Below Normal’ rainfall.
The minister said that the various higher authorities of the Central and State Governments have been informed of details of such forecast. He said that the forecast probability of a normal rainfall is only 28 percent.
Minister of State, Ministry of Science & Technology & Earth Sciences, YS Chowdary said that based on this forecast, the agricultural, irrigation and power departments will also give further advisories for farmers and hydel power projects.
The ESSO, India Meteorological Department makes the Southwest Monsoon prediction in two stages and the 1st stage released is a broad long range one.
Details released with the forecast say that currently weak El Nino conditions are prevailing over the Pacific and these conditions are likely to persist during the Southwest Monsoon season. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over Pacific are known to have a strong influence on the Indian Summer Monsoon. It says, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over the Pacific and Indian Ocean.
In the 2nd stage of forecast, ESSO- IMD will update the forecast again in June along with monthly forecasts for July and August,2015 for the whole country and separately for the four geographical regions of the country.